49ers aim for record fifth Big West title against top-seeded Gauchos

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Long Beach State tries to raise its total of Big West Conference Tournament titles to a record five, as the 49ers clash with the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in the championship round of the 35th-annual event at Anaheim Convention Center Arena.

LBSU, the third seed in this year's tourney, is currently tied with Pacific for the most tournament crowns with four, the most recent of those coming in 2007 with a 94-83 victory over Cal Poly. This time around LBSU had to work through the quarterfinals with a 79-69 victory over the sixth-seeded Mustangs and then take a 68-61 win versus second-seeded Pacific on Friday night.

As for the top-seeded Gauchos, a team that is well below .500 in this tournament over the years and has just a single crown (2002) to show for its efforts, they jumped right into the semifinals last night and used the opportunity to dismiss fourth-seeded UC Davis in a 76-62 decision that wasn't quite as close as the final score may have indicated.

The teams split the two regular season meetings, with each winning at home. While Long Beach State was able to log a lopsided 67-47 rout in its building back in the middle of January, the Gauchos were lucky to come away with their 64-62 win at the Thunderdome a month later. Due to the split, Long Beach State now owns a slim 53-52 advantage in the all-time series.

Casper Ware lit up the scoreboard for a career-high 22 points, shooting 6- of-16 from the field and 10-of-11 at the free-throw line, in the win over Pacific last night. Also scoring in double figures for the victors were Larry Anderson and Stephan Gilling with 14 and 12 points, respectively, as the squad shot an impressive 7-of-15 behind the three-point line, compared to just 5- of-22 out on the perimeter for the Tigers. Although he failed to reach double figures, T.J. Robinson is still the top scorer for the program with his 15.4 ppg overall this season and 14.9 ppg versus Big West foes, accounting for 10.1 rpg on the season as well. Anderson, who is just a 23.7 percent shooter behind the three-point line, is responsible for 11.8 ppg and Ware is now up to 11.7 ppg on the campaign, even though he too has had his share of issues shooting the ball from the floor at a meager 36.8 percent accuracy.

UC Davis was completely overwhelmed last night as the Aggies made just a single field goal through the first 12 minutes of the contest and trailed by a 16-4 score with barely seven and a half minutes remaining in the first half. The UCSB defense eased up in the second half, but the offense for the Gauchos knocked down 63.6 percent form the floor in order to keep plenty of distance between themselves and the opposition. James Powell tallied 22 points off the bench, James Nunnally 17 points, nine rebounds, and five assists, followed by Orlando Johnson with 14 points. Averaging more than 31 minutes per game, Johnson leads the squad in scoring with his 17.9 ppg and is also second on the unit in rebounding (5.4 rpg) and assists (63) over 28 appearances. Nunnally chips in with 14.9 ppg and while he also leads the unit with his 5.7 rpg, he's found time and opportunity to make good on 45.7 percent of his three-point tries as well.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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