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07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paula Creamer squeezed one final par out of prickly Oakmont and threw her hands over her face. The left hand was bandaged thumb-to-wrist, something else to absorb the tears.
She cried, yes, but this time the source of her waterworks was victory, not defeat. This time the sight of her on-course sighs was endearing, not frustrating.
This is the Paula Creamer we've been waiting for all along. And boy did she arrive at the right time.
Creamer broke through for her first major championship Sunday, winning the biggest one of them all, the U.S. Women's Open, with a steely two-under 69 in the final round.
Just four months after surgery to repair ligament damage in her left thumb -- four months after she wondered if she would ever play golf at a high level again -- Creamer was the only player to finish under par on a course that was built 107 years ago to confound the game's best.
Never shooting worse than a 72, Creamer posted a three-under 281 for the championship to beat Suzann Pettersen and Na Yeon Choi by four shots.
"It's incredible," Creamer gushed soon after the final round -- and it was.
Consider that Creamer played her last 52 holes in under 36 hours after the tournament was suspended early on Friday because of storms. Also consider that long-hitting Argentine Angel Cabrera won the men's U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2007 with a five-over 285.
How did Creamer do it? By being the player we all thought she would be five years ago when she became the youngest winner in the history of the LPGA as an 18-year-old who hadn't yet walked in her high school graduation.
Down to the last hole, Creamer never buckled. This wasn't the player who huffed and puffed her way to an out-of-sorts 79 in the third round of last year's U.S. Women's Open at Saucon Valley.
Creamer hit out of a bunker on a third of her holes that day, including one shot that sailed over the green and onto the trampled grass of a pedestrian path.
She chunked three chip shots and walked off with a triple-bogey, handing her ball to a young girl in the gallery. She sighed her way through the round that day, playing herself out of contention for the second year in a row.
There were sighs at Oakmont, too, but of a different kind. Creamer stepped away from an approach shot late in the final round, took a deep breath, then lined it back up and knocked it safely onto the green.
A television camera caught her shaking out the jitters and flashing a smile that stretched all the way to the Pennsylvania Turnpike.
It was in the bag.
With no traffic ahead of her on the leaderboard, and no one close in her rearview mirror, Creamer kept her foot on the pedal all the way to the end, making two late birdies and three straight pars to finish off her ninth career LPGA title.
It was, finally, the first of what should be a career full of major championships.
"I can't even describe what I feel," Creamer said. "It is just amazing to have my name on this trophy with some of the best players that have ever played the game."
Creamer's victory gave American women two majors in the same season for the first time in three years. (Cristie Kerr won the LPGA Championship last month to become the No. 1 player in the world.)
More important, perhaps, is this: We finally got another glimpse of the Paula Creamer who once dared to challenge Annika Sorenstam on a ruling at the season-ending ADT Championship. That was in 2005, when Creamer was a rookie and Sorenstam was only the best player in the world.
Oakmont saw the gutsy, get-out-of-my-way Creamer who won seven titles by the time she was 22 years old. It was the steady, laser-focused player who once shot a 60, the second-lowest score in LPGA history.
Her victory on Sunday should finally allow us to forget the gum-snapping Paula Creamer who appeared in those Precept commercials with Nick Price a couple of years ago, blowing bubbles and talking about puppy dogs and crushes.
She'll always be the Pink Panther, for sure, but any notion that Creamer is a less-than-serious competitor disappeared with those butterflies in her stomach on Sunday.
Creamer is a major champion now, bandages and all.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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