Langer among the leaders at Senior British

Golf Betting Lines

07/22/2010 - Carnoustie, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bernhard Langer posted a four-under 67 on Thursday to share the first-round lead with Jay Don Blake and Carl Mason at the Senior Open Championship.

Bruce Vaughan, the 2008 winner, Mark Wiebe and Dan Forsman are knotted in fourth place at three-under 68 at a wind-swept Carnoustie.

Tom Watson, who won his first of five claret jugs at Carnoustie back in 1975, struggled on Thursday with a three-over 74, but is still in the hunt for a fourth Senior Open title.

While Watson has been one of the most prolific winners in both British Open and Senior Open history, Langer was never able to hoist the claret jug in his younger days.

Langer, a two-time Masters champion, has never even earned a major title on the Champions Tour, despite being the two-time reigning Player of the Year and leading money winner.

"To put four good rounds together here, in the red numbers, you need to play some extremely good golf," said Langer, a 10-time winner on the Champions Tour, including two this year.

Langer started well with a birdie at the first, then parred his next five holes. The German finished off his opening nine with three consecutive birdies to make the turn at four-under par.

Langer parred his first four of the back nine, then played classic links golf en route to a birdie at the par-five 14th. He putted from well off the green, but lagged up close and tapped in for the birdie to reach five-under par for the championship.

The Hall of Famer immediately lost that stroke thanks to a bogey at the 15th. Langer parred out and certainly didn't mind the tough close to his opening round.

"I'm very happy with it," acknowledged Langer. "I played very well. I kept the ball in play, I drove it pretty good and hit a number of fairways. When I didn't hit the fairway, I was either fortunate enough to get a reasonable lie or miss some trouble and hit those shots out of the rough pretty good. Made a few putts and hit my irons fairly close."

Blake had an up and down front side with two birdies and a bogey. He did most of his damage at the start of the second nine with three birdies in a four- hole span from No. 10.

Like Langer, Blake reached five-under par with a birdie at the par-four 17th. Blake fell victim to the demanding closing hole and walked off with a bogey to fall into a tie for first.

"I just tried to execute myself around the golf course and be patient," said Blake. "It's a golf course that you can't be aggressive because everything runs up to the pin so much that you can't fly it to the flags like we are used to over in the courses we play in America."

Mason, an Englishman, played in the afternoon on Thursday and had a spectacular front nine with five birdies and no bogeys. Trouble loomed right away on the back with a double-bogey at the 10th, but he got those strokes back with birdies at 12 and 14.

Following in the footsteps of his fellow co-leaders, Mason was five-under, but Carnoustie got him late. He bogeyed the par-four 15th to fall back into the tie for the lead.

Mason may not be a household name in the U.S., but he has been downright dominant on the European Senior Tour. He won the Bad Ragaz PGA Seniors Open in early July and that tied him with Tommy Horton for most wins on that circuit with 23.

"If this was the 24th, that would be something special, wouldn't it?" noted Mason. "I was thrilled to bits the way I played, I played great. Best I've played for a good few weeks, so that was good. I felt good, and I started rolling in the putts and hit some great shots."

U.S. Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin, Sam Torrance, John Cook, Mike Donald, Jeff Sluman and Larry Mize, who won the last Champions Tour event, the Montreal Championship, are tied for seventh place at two-under 69.

NOTES: Defending champion Loren Roberts shot an even-par 71 and is tied for 19th place...Boonchu Ruangkit leads the European Senior Tour Order of Merit, but shot a four-over 75 on Thursday and is tied for 61st.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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