Pac-10 action pits Trojans against Cardinal

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/25/2007 - Stanford, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked USC Trojans have been one of the Pac-10's most surprising teams, and they are set to take on the Stanford Cardinal tonight.

With wins in two straight outings and four of the last five, USC has managed to improve to 15-5 overall and 5-2 in league play. The only loss over the last five outings came to national powerhouse UCLA by one point, and the Trojans have beaten both Oregon and Arizona. On Saturday, a strong defensive effort led to a 58-49 decision over Arizona State.

Like USC, Stanford has recorded victories in four of its last five games to improve to 12-5 overall and 4-3 in conference action. On Saturday, the Cardinal knocked off Oregon State by a 67-56 margin, and the 56 points allowed marked the team's best defensive effort since late November.

Stanford has won four of the last five meetings with USC, enabling the Cardinal to even the all-time series at 114-114.

There is no question that USC's Nick Young is one of the best players in the conference, as he is scoring 17.2 ppg on 54.1 percent shooting from the floor, including 46.8 percent from three-point range. Lodrick Stewart is netting 13.9 ppg for the Trojans, and Taj Gibson rounds out a strong trio with 13.0 ppg and 9.1 rpg. The Trojans have played tremendous defense through 20 games, as they are limiting opponents to just 60.5 ppg on 35.4 percent shooting from the field. USC shot a mere 37.5 percent from the floor against Arizona State on Saturday, but the Trojans limited the Sun Devils to a 36.5 percent effort. Another key to the win was that USC earned a 22-4 edge in points from the foul line. Young scored 18 points for the Trojans, and Gibson pitched in 11 points and eight rebounds.

Stanford is scoring 69.4 ppg this season while limiting opponents to 65.5 ppg on 41.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Cardinal are outrebounding foes by nearly six boards per outing, another key to the team's success. Lawrence Hill leads the club with 15.5 ppg on 53.5 percent shooting from the field, and he is pulling down 6.3 rpg as well. Anthony Goods checks in with 13.2 ppg, and Robin Lopez adds 10.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 41 blocked shots. Hill was tremendous in the win over Oregon State last time out, as he tallied 24 points on the strength of a 5-of-9 showing from the foul line. Goods contributed 16 points, and Brook Lopez managed 12 points and nine rebounds. The Cardinal made good on 55.3 percent of their field goal attempts in that clash and limited the Beavers to 37.7 percent overall shooting. A 16-5 advantage in points from the foul line also helped the cause.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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