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07/13/2010 - Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Sprint Cup Series takes a break this weekend, the Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series compete at Gateway International Raceway near St. Louis. The IZOD IndyCar Series runs on the streets of Toronto.
NASCAR
Nationwide Series
Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250 - Gateway Int'l Raceway - Madison, IL
The Nationwide Series rolls into the "Gateway to the West" for the start of the second half of the 2010 season. With 18 of 35 races completed, Brad Keselowski heads to Gateway International Raceway, located just outside of St. Louis, with a commanding 227-point lead over Carl Edwards.
Keselowski's 21st-place finish coupled with a seventh-place run for Edwards in last Friday race at Chicagoland allowed Edwards to trim 50 points off of Keselowski's lead.
Edwards and Keselowski, along with Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard, Michael McDowell, Joe Nemechek and Reed Sorenson, are those Sprint Cup Series regulars spending their off-weekend at Gateway.
One year ago, Kyle Busch added Gateway to his list of different tracks where he has won a Nationwide race. Busch benefited from Harvick's late-race misfortune, as Harvick ran out of fuel and handed the lead over to Busch with 29 laps remaining. He then held off Sorenson and Edwards in the closing laps for his sixth win of the season.
Busch will not defend his race title at Gateway. Brad Coleman will take over driving duties in the No.18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend.
Keselowski's best finish in three Nationwide starts at Gateway is fifth, which came in 2008. When Keselowski competed here for the first time three years ago, he finished 26th in his just his second start for Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Nationwide team JR Motorsports.
This is Keselowski's first year with Penske Racing.
Edwards, Harvick and Sorenson have two victories each at Gateway. Earnhardt Jr. is the only other repeat winner here.
"I am looking forward to going to Gateway," Edwards said. "Those wins there to me are it. There are no wins that are bigger. Those wins there are as big as any of my Cup wins. I have a lot of folks that are going to come out to the race there, folks that don't get to go to the races a lot, but are good friends of mine."
For the fifth year in a row, Edwards will make his annual trek on bike from his hometown of Columbia, MO to the 1.25-mile Gateway track, which is located five miles northeast of downtown St. Louis.
"We are going to ride our bikes," he said "It is about 200 miles, and we have a pretty crazy crew coming. The first part is going to be a charity event. We are going to leave from Walt's Bicycle Shop in Columbia, and we are going to ride a really neat ride down to the Missouri River, where we will have a bunch of folks help raise some money for a friend of mine that needs help with some hospital bills."
Harvick has competed in four Nationwide races at Gateway, with two victories and three-top-10 finishes. He finished 17th in last year's race here.
"Gateway has been a great track to me over the years," Harvick said. "I have two wins in four Nationwide Series starts, and look forward to continuing that success this time around with the No.33 Jimmy Johns Chevrolet. Gateway is a very unique track with two completely different sets of corners, which makes for some great racing that the fans will enjoy."
Ryan Truex, who is a development driver for Michael Waltrip Racing and the younger brother of Sprint Cup regular and two-time Nationwide champion Martin Truex Jr., will make his series debut at Gateway. The 18-year-old Truex won the 2009 NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion. He currently holds the points lead in that series.
"It is a really big opportunity, and I'm just excited to get started," Truex said. "I just can't thank everyone enough at MWR (Michael Waltrip Racing) for giving me this opportunity.
"Three years ago, I remember racing a Legend car at Wall Stadium in New Jersey, and now I'm here. It's hard to believe how fast it's come, but I'm excited, ready to get started and make the most of my opportunity."
Forty-nine teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250.
The series will race again at Gateway on October 23. It's the first year this track hosts two Nationwide events in the same season.
Camping World Truck Series
CampingWorld.com 200 - Gateway International Raceway - Madison, IL
The Camping World Truck Series join the Nationwide Series at Gateway International Raceway on the same weekend for the first time.
With the Sprint Cup Series taking a break this weekend, three series regulars -- Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Max Papis -- are entered in Friday's truck race at Gateway. Harvick and Keselowski also will compete in Saturday's Nationwide event here.
Rookie Austin Dillon is hoping his winning momentum will continue at Gateway. Dillon, the grandson of NASCAR multi-team owner Richard Childress and the son of Richard Childress Racing General Manager Mike Dillon, won his first career truck race in dominating fashion last Sunday at Iowa Speedway.
Dillon started on the pole and led 187 of 205 laps to claim his maiden victory in just his 12th truck start. He is the only member of the Childress family to win a race in one of NASCAR's top-three series. His grandfather's highest finish in 258 NASCAR starts was third at Nashville Speedway in 1978, while his father's best run in 154 starts was fourth, which came at Dover International Speedway in 1997 and Hickory Speedway the following year.
The 20-year-old Dillon has yet to compete at Gateway.
"I've been getting a few notes from dad, and some other people have been telling me about the track," Dillon said. "The way our equipment and trucks have been handling, I feel like there's no reason we shouldn't be able to go out there and run well. We might not be able to pick up as fast as we usually do in practice and make the adjustments we're able to make when we were fast right off the truck."
Dillon also set a record at Iowa by becoming the first rookie in the series to win three consecutive poles. Can he make it four poles in a row at Gateway?
"There's a good shot at it," he said. "Four in a row would be awesome. I don't know what the record is for the Truck Series for how many poles in a row, but I'd love to go for it."
Four drivers on the entry list -- Todd Bodine, Ron Hornaday Jr., Mike Skinner and David Starr -- have won a truck race at Gateway in the past. Ted Musgrave is the only driver with multiple truck wins here.
Skinner won last year's race at Gateway in the most unlikely circumstances. Matt Crafton spoiled Hornaday's opportunity for a dominating victory when Crafton spun him out just after a late-race restart. Hornaday hit the wall and slid down the track, with Jason Young slamming into the back of his truck.
Crafton took the lead, but NASCAR penalized him for rough driving. That allowed Skinner to take the lead for the first time. Skinner then held off Johnny Sauter in a green-white-finish for his third and final victory of the 2009 season.
"We won with a fourth-place truck, and at the end of the day when the smoke cleared, the No.5 was in victory lane," Skinner said. "I kept asking myself, 'How did this happen?' But I'll take it."
Hornaday, who led 116 of 162 laps, attempted to become the first driver to win a truck race at Gateway in consecutive years.
Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the CampingWorld.com 200.
IZOD INDYCAR SERIES
Honda Indy Toronto - Streets of Toronto - Toronto, Canada
The IZOD IndyCar Series heads to Canada this weekend for the second running of the Honda Indy Toronto on the streets of Toronto.
Two weeks ago, Watkins Glen, NY kicked off a string of five races on street/road courses. Edmonton, Canada, Mid-Ohio and Sonoma, CA are upcoming on the IndyCar schedule.
Will Power from Team Penske gave his title hopes a huge boost by winning at Watkins Glen. Power picked up his third victory of the season, but his first since March at St. Petersburg, FL. All three of his wins this year have come on street/road courses. He also is the only repeat winner in the series so far this season.
With the win, Power widened his lead from 11 points to 32 over Dario Franchitti, the defending series champion. Franchitti's Target Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon is 40 points behind. Ryan Briscoe sits fourth in points (-47), and Helio Castroneves holds the fifth spot (-54).
With eight races remaining, it looks as though it will be another tight battle for the IndyCar championship.
"No question it's more competitive than it's ever been," Power said. "It's going to be tight. It could come down to five people at the end of the year. It's that close with someone different winning every week."
Franchitti won last year's inaugural IndyCar race at Toronto. He recovered from a pit road mishap and then capitalized on a series of late-race crashes to capture the victory. It was Franchitti's third win of the season.
Power rebounded from an opening lap incident. He cut his right-rear tire after making contact with Graham Rahal heading into the first turn. Power fell almost one lap behind, but bounced back nicely for a third-place finish.
The win at Toronto allowed Franchitti to regain the points.
"For me, I just look at it one at a time, road course, oval, whatever it is," Franchitti said. "It means you have to be on top of your game, whether Toronto, Chicago or Homestead for the last race. You have to be absolutely on it. If you can't win, finish second."
Twenty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Honda Indy Toronto.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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